Ukraine: Could Reality Be Overtaking Germany’s Illusions about Defeating Russia?

Officially and publicly, the governments of NATO countries continue to repeat the mantra “Ukraine can win this war”. But there are signs that a certain retreat from this illusionary view has already begun. For instance, the high-profile meeting of NATO’s Ukraine Contact Group, scheduled for Oct. 12 in Ramstein, Germany, was put off after U.S. President Biden abruptly postponed by one week his trip to Germany (cf. SAS 41/24).

According to some insiders, this indicates that the Ukraine issue has become too hot for the Americans, especially in the final weeks of the election campaign, and they want to let Europe deal with it alone. Joe Biden’s change of plans is also said to reflect the Kremlin’s decision to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, in response to plans to allow Kyiv to launch strikes deep into Russian territory using western weapons. Moreover, for the moment, the priority for the neocons in the U.S. has become the defense of Israel, in order to preserve their interests in the Middle East.

The potential change in tone from NATO was undoubtedly felt by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, whose requests for the immediate delivery of long-range missiles were rejected during his trip to Washington, and in his subsequent tour of Europe with stops in London, Paris, Rome and Berlin. More specially concerning Berlin, the leading mass-tabloid Bildzeitung leaked on Oct. 14 the information that an internal German Defense Ministry memorandum assesses that Ukraine simply does not have the capability in the short term to take back territory that Russia has conquered. This is reportedly the reason why the government will no longer deliver heavy weapons to Kyiv, including some battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and other systems needed for an offensive against Russian forces.

However, the more realistic view of Ukraine’s actual chances on the battlefield has not given rise (at least not yet) to any signs that a diplomatic solution to the conflict is being pursued. This leaves a dangerous gray zone allowing the NATO russophobes to continue their provocations. One such case is Friedrich Merz, the leader of the opposition CDU and the party’s Chancellor candidate. He criticized the cancellation of the Ramstein meeting, telling the ARD talk show program Caren Miosga, that “the Europeans are making themselves smaller than they are…. We need to become more independent from the U.S.” Evidently, he, at least, would support the so-called “Europeanization” of the war in Ukraine.

An Oct. 7 editorial in London’s Financial Times also regretted that “the mood is shifting” in Washington and some Western capitals “from a determination that the war can end only with Russia’s army driven from Ukraine, to the reluctant recognition that a negotiated settlement that leaves the bulk of the country intact may be the best hope”.