STRATEGIC ALERT Service

Showing that central banks can create dilemmas, but can’t solve them, the European Central Bank is now warning of the financial crash (devised by itself) in its biannual Financial Stability Review of November. If the bank keeps tightening monetary policy, “disorderly adjustments” are threatened, whereas if it doesn’t, inflation will continue to spin out of control. Of course, there is […]

Events of the past weeks show that major European countries, despite heavy political pressure, are not willing to economically decouple from China, after decoupling from Russia – at least not completely. We reported in our last issues on German Chancellor Scholz’s visit to Beijing and on the statement by major corporate leaders on the importance of maintaining and expanding economic […]

The offer to host urge peace talks on Ukraine, launched in late October by the German city of Stralsund with an open letter (“A New Stralsund Peace”) to the federal government in Berlin and to the Mecklenburg state government, has drawn the support of the mayors of 15 French communes (cf. SAS 43/22). Others are expected to join, as the […]

After intense wrangling that prolonged the proceedings for 48 hours, delegates at the climate change shebang in Sharm el-Sheikh finally managed to come up with a statement, with the developed countries pledging (at least on paper) financial aid to the poorest countries. But no one was really satisfied with the results – least of all the Malthusian, anti-development lobby working […]

A potential shift in the strategic situation could be developing, centered on developments around the war in Ukraine and the U.S.-Russia relationship. The escalation from the Russian side, in targeting energy infrastructure, has reduced the capacities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while at the same time, the Russian tactical withdrawal from Kherson opens up a chance for talks, in which […]

The three hour meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping Nov. 14 in Bali, the first ever, may have somewhat eased the tensions that have developed over the last few months. Both sides report that the discussion was quite cordial and extensive – although the readouts from the respective presidencies are quite different. The Chinese side […]

The midterm election campaigns in the United States heavily featured loose talk about the “end of democracy”. For the Republicans (GOP), this referred to the pervasive censorship of opposition to the policies of the Democratic Party, and allegations of widespread vote fraud conducted by urban Democratic party election machines. For the Democrats, it was the belief that the Jan. 6, […]

This is the story of two Ponzi schemes, of three entities called FTX, FFT and Alameda, and of earthquake precursors. To begin with the latter, in physics, earthquake precursors are mostly little shocks preceding the big one. In finance, a “peripheral” event precedes a systemic crisis. The bankruptcy of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, officially filed on Nov. 11, can be […]

Eight of the CEOs of major German companies who accompanied Chancellor Olaf Scholz to China on Nov. 4, published a joint statement in the Nov. 10 Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, defending their cooperation with the Chinese as being in Germany’s genuine interest. A pullout, on the other hand, as demanded by geopolitical adversaries would “cut us off” from industrial development perspectives. […]

A “mega political crisis over migration”, to quote deputy EU Commission chairman Margareta Schinas, threatens to break out between France and Italy over illegal migrants. After Italy denied docking to some NGO ships which then sailed to French ports, the French government accused the Italians of violating EU agreements and took a series of retaliatory measures, including the suspension of […]