Is Olaf Scholz Seriously Considering a Change in Policy?

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, praised until now as a model pupil of NATO doctrine to the detriment of German interests and sovereignty, has made newspaper headlines in the past two weeks with remarks seeming to go in a different direction. He spoke of the need of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, he confirmed he would continue to oppose delivery of German long-range missiles to Kyiv, and he promised an unbiased investigation into the Nord Stream sabotage and the arrest of those who did it. Sounds good, but does he really mean it?

For one, the Chancellor remained vague in all his remarks, without walking back any of his previous geopolitical positions. Moreover, he did not withdraw his support for the planned stationing of U.S. long range missiles on German territory, nor did he renounce the maximalist “Zelenskyy formula” of a total withdrawal of Russian troops from eastern Ukraine and even Crimea. He did not debunk the official narrative about an ominous “Ukrainian businessman” and his diver friends who blew up the pipeline on their own initiative, nor did he declare an end to weapons deliveries or make any concrete proposal for diplomacy. Although his government did announce a few weeks ago a sizable reduction in military aid to Ukraine, the plan is to fill the gap with money stolen from Russian assets sitting in banks, while making the German budget look better.

The Chancellor acknowledged that many citizens disagree with his policy toward Russia, but said he would not change it. Furthermore, Scholz strictly rejects any SPD contact with the BSW (new party of Sahra Wagenknecht), which openly rejects the missile stationing and weapons deliveries to Ukraine and calls for diplomacy to end the war.

Therefore, unless some substantial action is taken, the recent remarks by Olaf Scholz are to be placed in the category “election campaign promises”. His party, the SPD, suffered smashing defeats in the recent elections in Saxony and Thuringia (cf. SAS 36/24), and is headed for another setback, although less severe, in the state elections in its stronghold of Brandenburg on Sept. 22. For the moment, polls give the SPD only 26% of the vote, against 29% for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which would come in first. This, despite the fact that the party opposes weapons deliveries to Ukraine, as well as the stationing of long-range missiles, and the official narrative on the Nord Stream sabotage.

The BSW, which did remarkably well in the two state elections of Sept. 1, calls for diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and she has denounced as “insanely dangerous” the plan to install U.S. long-range missiles on German territory.

Note that Berlin’s hastily cobbled together plan to set up border checks to prevent illegal immigration is another obvious attempt to win over voters in Brandenburg and restore some confidence in the badly battered government.