European Election Results Discredit Brussels and Member State Governments

The Parliament of the European Union, the institution that loves to lecture the rest of the world about democracy, is in fact powerless. It cannot legislate on its own initiative and cannot even dissolve itself. Its function relative to the Executive of the EU, the Commission, is similar to that of consultative bodies under absolute monarchies. Only once during a given term is it relevant: when, at the beginning of its five-year legislature, it elects the European Commission. But even in that case, the EP is strongly conditioned by deals struck inside the European Council, where governments of member states agree on who will be the next Commission head, who will eventually be voted on by the parliamentarians.

That said, the political importance of the June 6-9 election for European Parliament cannot be underestimated. Citizens rejected all ruling governments, with one exception, thus undermining the legitimacy of the pro-war and pro-Green Deal policies pushed by those governments. In particular the driving axis of the EU, the Franco-German alliance, suffered a smashing defeat, with the German “traffic light” coalition barely reaching 30% of the votes and Emmanuel Macron’s party receiving only half as much as its main adversary, the Rassemblement National (RN cf. below). (In a desperate attempt to stay afloat, Macron announced national snap elections, hoping to repeat the gimmick of rallying all anti-RN forces in the second round.) Even the success of the Italian center-right coalition under PM Giorgia Meloni could partially be seen as a vote against the EU, as all those parties have opposed the Green Deal follies and recently distanced themselves from the mad policy, pushed by President Macron and Chancellor Scholz, of becoming involved in military strikes on Russian territory.

The European elections can therefore be seen as a major referendum against EU policies. In democratic countries, such a pronouncement by the people cannot be ignored. But in the EU, democracy is an export-only item. Here, rules are different. Thus, one can expect European leaders, although delegitimized, to stick to their agenda, beginning with the election of the next president of the European Commission.

As the EU Council convenes at the end of June, they will have on the table the name of Ursula von der Leyen, candidate of the European People’s Party (EPP), the “winner” of the elections, who hopes to win a second mandate. She needs a majority vote of 55% in the Council, representing 65% of European citizens. This formula makes it complicated: none of the four largest countries by population is ruled by parties belonging to the EPP. Thus, a compromise must be reached and former ECB chairman Mario Draghi is still an option in the background.

Furthermore, the candidate must eventually be voted in by the European Parliament. Traditionally, the EP approves the deals made by the European Council, and the so-called “Ursula majority” (a grand coalition of centrists (EPP), liberals and socialists), although weakened, still has a tiny majority on paper. This majority, however, disappears if there is the same percentage of opposition within their own ranks as five years ago. Furthermore, the liberal and socialist component of the coalition have expressed their dissatisfaction with the opening of von der Leyen to right-wing factions. Thus, surprises may be in store.