Elections in Saxony and Thuringia: A Resounding Defeat for Berlin

For weeks before the state elections that took place on Sept. 1 in the two eastern states of Saxony and Thuringia, desperate voices from the Establishment and in the media warned voters not to vote for the AfD (Alternative for Germany) or the BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht), insisting that the issue was not war or peace. But precisely these two parties made the strongest gains, especially the BSW which was only founded as a party in February of this year, and which, unlike the AfD, does not endorse NATO. The three parties in the national coalition, on the other hand, got smashed.

This was a vote for diplomacy instead of war, for an end to weapons deliveries to Ukraine, for restoring the Nord Stream pipelines, and for re-establishing constructive relations with Russia. The BSW benefited from a substantial mobilization of non-voters, which contributed to the high turnout in both states: Saxony 74.4%, Thuringia 73%.

A majority of German voters are undoubtedly against the stationing of U.S. long-range missiles, which make their country a prime target for attacks from both sides, and against the war policy. That explains the dismal results for the Berlin coalition on Sunday. In Thuringia, the Greens and FDP were voted out of the state parliament altogether, with respectively 3.2% and 1.1%, while in Saxony the FDP plunged to 0.9% and the Greens just barely made it over the hurdle, with 5.1%. Chancellor Scholz’s SPD continued its slide into oblivion, receiving only 6.1% in Thuringia and 7.3% in Saxony.

For the opposition Christian Democrats, they received 23.6% in Thuringia, way behind the AfD with 32.8%, and 31.9% in Saxony, just slightly above the AfD, at 30.6%. The BSW scored, respectively, 15.8% and 11.8%. Note that the CDU Minister President of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, has been outspoken against the party bosses in supporting good relations with Russia, and for the re-opening of the Nord Stream pipelines.

Whether the national German government will draw the needed conclusions from that, is unlikely. Internationally however, the terms “instability” and “ungovernability” now apply to Germany. As it now stands, it can’t be excluded that none of the three coalition partners will survive the next Bundestag elections scheduled for Sept. 2025. That explains the calls already circulating for early elections, or at least for a change in the government composition. The FDP, for example, may simply pull out to avoid disappearing completely. Moreover, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November will certainly have an impact on the decisions of the German elites.

Meanwhile, the issue of war or peace will remain the primary concern over the coming months. Hopefully, the “shocking gains” of the AfD and the BSW will effectively bring center-stage a national debate on the question, spurring the emergence of a huge anti-war movement.