Iran Strengthens Relations with Russia and the BRICS
The credibility of the United States Administration has been severely damaged by its inability or unwillingness to pressure the Israeli government into accepting a ceasefire. The danger of the expansion of war from Palestine to Lebanon and then to Syria, Iraq and Iran, has become real. While Israel has delayed its retaliation to Iran’s missile attack of Oct. 1, reportedly in order to “consult” with the U.S. side, Israeli officials insist that the country will be hit with severe attacks to paralyze its energy and nuclear facilities.
On the ground, the narrow windows of diplomacy are closing, as Tehran has just put an end to the indirect messaging channel with Washington. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Oct. 15 that “we don’t see any grounds for these talks, until we can get past the current crisis”. Despite the absence of diplomatic relations between the two countries, the Iranian side made known last June that it was engaged in indirect talks with Washington via Oman, with the aim of reducing tensions in the region and avoiding a direct war between Iran and Israel. However, the assassination by Israel of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, while he was attending the inauguration of the new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, was a step toward the end of a multilateral effort to reach a ceasefire in Gaza. That effort had begun just days before, with China’s success in bringing about a reconciliation agreement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority and 12 other factions, under which the PLO would assume administrative control of Gaza, and thus remove a major excuse of the Israelis in attacking Gaza (cf. SAS 31/24).
Even after the assassination of Haniyeh, the new Iranian leadership was urged to show restraint and not to retaliate, since the Biden Administration was about to get Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire. But the latter decided instead to assassinate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.
Against this backdrop, many U.S.-allied nations in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have made it clear that they are against any attack on Iran using their territories, and have met with Iranian officials to personally convey their neutrality. The Iranian President also met with Saudi Arabia’s and other GCC Foreign Ministers in Qatar while attending a regional conference on Oct. 2, i.e., one day after Iran’s missile attack on Israel.
Iran is also seeking to strengthen its ties to the BRICS and the Global South, and even more importantly to Russia, with a major upgrading of comprehensive strategic cooperation expected soon. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Pezeshkian held their first meeting in the capital of Turkmenistan, Ashgabat, on Oct. 12, where the Russian leader noted that “Relations with Iran are a priority for us, and they are progressing very successfully”. He remarked that trade turnover between the two countries has grown this year, as part of an overall positive trend, and their positions are aligned on a number of international issues. As for military cooperation, it has been dramatically upgraded in the past two years. Moreover, Iran will be welcomed into the BRICS Plus as a full member when Pezeshkian attends the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, on Oct. 22-24.
