China Bases Diplomacy for Ukraine on Economic Growth

China’s Special Envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, is visiting Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia for consultations on Beijing’s plan for achieving an end to the war in Ukraine. All three countries have actively sought on their own to facilitate negotiations on the issue. With Brazil, where Li Hui arrived on July 28, Beijing had forged a joint peace initiative two months ago, which is widely supported internationally. Both countries, together with South Africa, are original members of the BRICS. A fourth member, India, will be sending its Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Kyiv in the second half of August, who has offered to act as a mediator in resolving the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Li Hui’s mission follows the visit of Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Kuleba to Beijing on July 23 for three days of discussions on a possible ceasefire and the launching of peace talks. While there has been some controversy as to what the results were, with Kyiv and Washington later walking back the progress made, and the Chinese maintaining their habitual diplomatic reserve, the very fact that the visit took place reflects the growing importance of China’s approach to ending conflicts.

In fact, Foreign Minister Wang made clear that the basis for optimism in reaching a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia is not some magic formula, but the prospect of benefits flowing from becoming part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its great projects. He recalled how in December 2013, the Ukrainian government at the time, i.e., before the putsch on the Maidan, had already signed on to the initiative. As reported by CGTN on July 24, Wang said that “Ukraine was one of the first countries to support and participate in the Belt and Road Initiative” and that the “two sides should capitalize on the role of bilateral cooperation mechanisms and strengthen practical cooperation in various fields….” He further stressed that both sides should advance beneficial cooperation, and develop relations from a long-term perspective.

Of special note, Wang made no mention of the coup in Kyiv, openly driven and financed by the West, that followed President Viktor Yanukovych’s trip to Beijing in Dec. 2013 and his meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping on joining the BRI. The subsequent governments of Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyy disrupted those plans of cooperation. However, Wang Yi simply reminded Ukraine of the road not taken, as if it were all water under the bridge, with China ready to pick up where things had left off.